Will the Minnesota Legislature break out of its log jam?

In the last two years, Minnesota has operated with a House split evenly between Republicans and DFLers, only the second time that has happened in the Legislature’s 169-year history. The Senate is also as close as it could possibly be, with the DFL nursing a one-vote advantage.

Understanding how the make-up of the Legislature might change after this fall’s elections means learning about the demographics, candidates and pet issues of legislative districts where there is a roughly even number of DFL and Republican voters.

Here is an earlyish look. Over the coming weeks, MinnPost will visit these districts, listen to voters and be pulled along to candidate events. Buckle up.

Northeast nail-biters

The largest district in surface area could be the most competitive. District 3 spans 14,809 square miles, slicing across the Duluth suburbs and Iron Range and bubbling over with debates over data centers, guns and mining.

The Senate race is a rematch of the 2022 contest when DFLer Grant Hauschild eked by Republican Andrea Zupancich with just less than 51% of the vote.

In his first-term, Hauschild penned ultimately stymied legislation to ban non-disclosure agreements between cities and data center manufacturers. Haushchild’s hometown of Hermantown is torn over a possible Google data center.

Hauschild also gave a tear-filled Senate floor speech to say he would join his DFL colleagues and vote to ban assault weapons.

Zupancich is a real estate agent and mayor of Babbitt.

Just as compelling as “Hauschild-Zupancich: The Sequel” is the House race in 3B, the “dense” part of District 3 that includes Duluth suburbs like Hermantown.

Natalie Zeleznikar, R-Fredenberg Township, seeks her third term after ousting incumbent Mary Murphy by 33 votes in 2022 and edging retired judge Mark Munger by 121 votes in 2024.

Zeleznikar is a former nursing home administrator who has a nuanced track record on how best the state should use Medicaid dollars.

“I worked in health care the last 35 years,” Zeleznikar said in an interview. “My goal was to provide good care to vulnerable adults.”

Her opponent is Aaron Schweiger, a residential real estate developer who said that the DFL House leader recruited him.

“Zack Stephenson called and talked to me,” Schweiger said in an interview, speaking of the House DFL leader. “He said that we’re looking for a candidate and Natalie is the most-targeted Republican up for reelection.”

Schweiger said state legislators can “put up guardrails” to prevent local officials “who are not experts on large-scale data centers” from getting snookered by companies like Google.

He compared data centers to cannabis, stating that the businesses should not necessarily be illegal but must be highly regulated.

It is unclear if the rural expanse that is 3A will be competitive. Republican Roger Skraba won by 15 votes in 2022 but then garnered 56% of the tally in 2024.

Skraba, who has made his mark as an ATV enthusiast, will almost surely run against DFL-endorsed Aaron Kania, a retired U.S. Forest Service District Ranger based in Ely.

people marching down a street holding political campaign signs for minnesota dfl candidates — Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor supporters march in the Coon Rapids 4th of July Celebration Parade on July 2, 2026. Credit: Tony Nelson for MinnPost

If it plays in Clay

Clay County, where Moorhead is the main population center, snapped an impressive streak in 2024. Between 2000 and 2020, a majority of voters in the county aligned with the winning presidential candidate.

Voters backed Kamala Harris in 2024, however, crossing the county off an exclusive list of national bellwethers. But Senate District 4 voters, encompassing Moorhead and its larger region to the east, went with Donald Trump in 2024. This despite a DFLer, Rob Kupec, winning the district with about 52% of the vote in 2022.

A former television meteorologist, Kupec tried to pass a plug-in solar bill last session to no avail. For another crack at the legislation, he’ll need to fend off Austin Peterson, a small-business owner and school board member from Hawley.

Swings in St. Cloud

Sen. Aric Putnam, DFL-St. Cloud, had a similar election-night margin as Kupec in 2022, winning 52% of the vote in District 14 over Tama Theis.

Theis was a state representative at the time, and Putnam will again face someone looking to climb into the upper chamber this year. Bernie Perryman is leaving her 14A seat to run against Putnam.

As with District 4, voters in District 14 voted for Trump in 2024. Democrats fared better in 2022, though, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

In District 14B, Dan Wolgamott won a nail-biter by less than 200 votes in 2024. His Republican opponent, Sue Ek, is again running, but this time for an open seat after Wolgamott launched an unsuccessful run for state auditor.

Ek pointed out that she was ahead on election night before an update on the Secretary of State’s site. Voters still remember it, she said.

Fraud is high on their minds as well, she added.

“People are angry that huge amounts of money were given (for programs) without any follow-up,” she said. “They are annoyed that nothing has been done to safeguard their hard-earned money. They also want something about our high taxes.”

Zach Dorholt, who unseated an incumbent to serve one term as St. Cloud’s representative in 2012, is returning to the fold as the DFL-endorsed candidate.

Dorholt is a mental health professional who serves on the St. Cloud School Board. He said he regularly hears voter concerns about the cost of living, including health care costs.

After he saw political action committee money flood his district with negative attack ads in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United case — which determined that labor unions and corporations have free-speech rights — he’s passionate about reining in the amount of money spent in campaigns and who spends it.

“People in my district would love to see relief,” he said.

A Republican retirement in Rochester

For 16 years, Republican Carla Nelson represented a Senate district that covers part of Rochester. She’s one of the 10 longest-tenured members of the Senate but is hanging it up this year, citing family issues.

Her departure raises questions: Was her close win in 2020 or her relatively easy victory in 2022 more indicative of what to expect this year? Did Nelson’s experience make her uniquely able to win as a Republican in one of Greater Minnesota’s more centrist areas?

Republican Nels Pierson and Democrat Simon Glaser will square off to succeed her.

There are parallels between the campaign for legislative District 24 and the U.S. House race that will be on the same ballot.

Pierson is a former state representative who grew up on a dairy farm. U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad, R-1st District, is a former state representative and farmer.

Glaser is a teacher in Rochester. So is Finstad’s Democratic challenger, Jake Johnson.

Like Finstad and Johnson, Pierson and Glaser will need to successfully woo the right mix of city and rural voters. District 24 also spans deep red rural townships.

a candidate in a blue dress smiles at a campaign parade next to a girl holding a sign pointing to her — Elementary school principal Angela Nelson campaigns in the Coon Rapids 4th of July Celebration Parade on July 2, 2026. The DFL candidate is challenging incumbent state Sen. Jim Abeler in what’s expected to be one of this year’s most competitive legislative races. Credit: Tony Nelson for MinnPost

Will Abeler hang on?

Sen. Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, partners with DFLers on Medicaid legislation, is endorsed by the National Nurses Association union and denounced Trump for calling Somalis who live in Minnesota garbage, among other acts of deviating from GOP orthodoxy.

Abeler must channel every ounce of moderation he has to hold onto District 35 in the northern suburbs, which Kamala Harris and Tim Walz won in the 2024 presidential election. Angela Nelson, a principal at Otter Lake Elementary School, is the DFL endorsed candidate.

“Every day, I talk to folks who are struggling to make ends meet,” Nelson said in a statement. “I don’t just hear those concerns; as a lifelong Coon Rapids and single mom of two, I live them, too.”

The District 35 House races are two rematches.

In 35A, DFLer Kari Rehrauer is set to face Republican Steve Pape, who Rehrauer defeated by one percentage point in 2024. Pape is a retired engineer who worked for the Pentagon.

Stephenson, the DFL House leader, squares off in 35B against Josh Jungling, whom Stephenson defeated by a hair under 4 percentage points. Jungling oversees bingo, pull-tabs and meat raffles as gambling manager at the Anoka Ramsey Athletic Association.

Life after Limmer

Republican Warren Limmer has been District 37’s senator since 1995, clinging onto the seat as the northwest suburban district shifted leftward, voting for Joe Biden for president in 2020 and Harris in 2024.

Limmer is retiring, and the GOP scurried to find a suitable candidate after failing to persuade departing House member Kristin Robbins to run.

The party has since endorsed Brady Hoag, who, according to a Minnesota Campaign Finance Board filing, works at the pharmaceutical company Upsher Smith Laboratories.

Hoag will probably tangle with the DFL-endorsed Kristy Janigo, who manages government contracts at Hennepin County and is a member of the Maple Grove City Council. A former Army sergeant, Janigo’s campaign focuses on veterans issues.

The race to replace Robbins in 37A is likely to pit DFLer Darci Smith against Republican Tom McKee. Robbins won her seat in 2024 with 57% of the vote.

In 37B, incumbent Kristin Bahner, DFL-Maple Grove, is favored to win reelection. Republicans have glued onto Luke Doerer, a sales representative at adhesive manufacturer H.B. Fuller.

Water, water everywhere but just drops of 3M settlement money

The races in District 41, consisting of suburbs east of the Twin Cities, will feature issues off the beaten path.

One is how the state finishes allocating the $850 million that 3M paid Minnesota in 2018 over allegations the company ruined drinkable water by leaking PFAS chemicals.

Rep. Tom Dippel, R-Cottage Grove, is, again, running for Senate against Judy Seeberger, who edged out Dippel in 2022.

“She’s refused to sign onto bills to give our district 3M settlement money,” Dippel said of Seeberger, declaring that she let too much cash go to Woodbury “which isn’t even in our district.” (Woodbury is in District 47).

Seeberger has maintained that communities impacted by PFAS should not compete against one another for settlement dollars.

Another beneath-the-radar issue is medical waste, a focus of 41A Rep. Wayne Johnson, R-Cottage Grove.

Johnson, in an interview, said he wants to “stop health care care facilities from sending needles, blood and body parts to trash locations.”

But instead of passing a bill last session to levy penalties on hospitals, the Legislature commissioned a study. Johnson said that was frustrating, but that it could be a first stop.

The DFL endorsed Lake Elmo attorney Cole Birkeland to challenge Johnson. Birkeland is focused on clean water and asserting Minnesotan’s civil rights “against federal overreach,” he said in an interview.

With Dippel running for the Senate, Republicans want to replace him in the House with … Dippel’s lab technician.

Dippel operates Newport-based Minnesota Dental Labs, whose employees include William Beck, a guided surgery technician.

“Tom did not ask me to run,” Beck emailed. “In fact, he warned me about the sacrifices that come with public service.”

Still, Beck threw his hat in the ring “because too many Minnesotans have lost confidence in politicians on both sides of the aisle.”

Beck is running against Jen Fox, owner of Angie Craig hotspot Spiral Brewery in Hastings. Fox narrowly lost her bid for the 41B seat in 2024.

people marching in a parade holding steve pape for house 35b campaign signs — Minnesota Republican Party supporters march in the Coon Rapids 4th of July Celebration Parade on July 2, 2026. Credit: Tony Nelson for MinnPost

Shakopee gets a House rematch after razor-thin 2024 race

There are close races, and then there’s what happened in House District 54A in 2024. Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee, won reelection by a mere 14 votes.

His opponent, Aaron Paul, argued in a lawsuit that 20 missing ballots could’ve overturned the results. A state district court judge ultimately determined that, based on sworn testimony from voters, Paul had no mathematical path to victory.

In what Tabke’s attorney called an “unprecedented” move, House Republicans attempted to reject the results. The effort failed on a party-line vote.

Paul, a police officer, is challenging Tabke again.

Tabke’s recent work in office included organizing against a plan to build a federal immigration enforcement detention facility in Shakopee.

As Operation Metro Surge embroiled Minnesota earlier this year, Tabke released a statement saying that “to try and build this facility without the community’s voice involved highlights ICE’s complete disregard for Minnesotans.”

Immigration could be a resonant issue in Shakopee. The percentage of foreign-born residents in 54A, a staggeringly fast-growing area, is twice as high as the state average and also above the national average.

Cows, colleges and competitive districts

St. Peter and Northfield are college towns surrounded by farm fields. Another characteristic shared by these southern Minnesota cities? Tightly contested legislative races.

In Northfield, where Carleton and St. Olaf Colleges helped give it a “cows, colleges and contentment” town motto, DFLer Kristi Pursell nabbed 52% of the votes in 58A in 2024. Apart from Northfield, the district spans rural areas to the west and exurbs creeping up against the southwest Twin Cities metro.

Pursell’s Republican opponent this year is Steve Cherney, a former Lonsdale City Council member. His campaign website linked to a blank WordPress page as of early July.

In the Senate, Republican Bill Lieske is defending District 58 after receiving 53% of the vote in 2022. The Lonsdale chiropractor’s constituency stretches from Northfield into the far south Twin Cities metro, including Farmington and that suburb’s proposed data center.

The project is a point of contention for residents who’ve vowed to make it a campaign issue this fall. They’ll seek to push Lieske and his DFL challenger, Mark Legvold, a farmer, for answers.

St. Peter, meanwhile, has Gustavus Adolphus College and lies in 18A, which vies with 3B as the swingiest of swing districts in Minnesota. It has switched from DFL to GOP control over the last four elections.

Republican Erica Schwartz, who works at a gas station owned by her husband in Nicollet, will look to snap the losing streak for incumbents. She took office after securing 52% of the vote in 2024.

Schwartz’s DFL opponent is Leah Hanson of North Mankato, which is located in a different county and district than its bluer sister city, Mankato.

Coincidentally, Hanson and Schwartz have both been involved in traumatic vehicle crashes. A crash left Hanson, now 37, paralyzed in her early 20s. Schwartz once lost her then-fiance in a fatal crash.

Hanson named housing and affordability among her top campaign issues, on brand for a social worker who works at a homeless shelter. She said in an interview that constituents want more engagement from lawmakers than what they’re getting from Schwartz.

“I think our elected officials should be transparent, accountable and responsive to constituents,” she said. “That’s a lot of what pushed me into deciding to run at this moment.”

This story was originally published by MinnPost.

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